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December 4, 2022

Illinois COVID 19 Numbers – What can we believe- Part II?

By Kirk Allen & John Kraft

On March 27, 2020

Illinois (ECWd) –

During any health emergency is it asking to much to have accurate information from our Government?

Once again, the state has issued figures that frankly don’t add up.

According to the Illinois Department of Public Health’s situational update issued March 25, 2020, the following numbers of people have been tested for the China virus “COVID 19”.

According to the published report, a total of 13,634 people have been tested….or have they?

Adding up their own numbers of those tested, the math computes to 16,334, not 13,634.  So which is it? Are the total numbers transposed?

The report on demographics shows 7,461 Whites have been tested which they report as being 34.92%.

However, 34.92% of 13,634 is actually 4,760. At first glance, one would think it was simple transposing of the first two numbers, however, that does not explain why one figure ends with a 1 and the proper math ending in a 0.

The figures for Blacks reflect 1,938 have been tested which they report as 29.60%.

Anyone surprised to know 29.60% of 13,634 is 4,036, not 1,938?

So what is the real number of people actually tested?  Is it 13,634 and they screwed up on calculating the percentages or is it 15,758 total tested obtained by applying their percentage figures to their claimed 13,634, or is it really 16,334, the total of the total tested column in the report?

It gets better………or worse depending on if your cup is half empty or half full.

Adding up all the reported percentage numbers of those tested they are reporting 115.38%.  Can anyone explain how the total percentage of people tested can exceed 100%?

Adding up the confirmed case they report a total for each demographic and then an “under investigation” figure, with a total confirmed of 1,724.  However, adding up their own column reflects a total of 1,594.  So which is accurate in this report, 1,724 confirmed cases or 1,594?

Of great interest is the projection of new cases by the end of the month, March 31, 2020.  IDPH is predicting 23,862 cases. We hope that projection is wrong and only time will tell.  We also hope this is not an attempt to over project and then take credit for a job well done when those “projected” numbers are not hit.

You can download the IDPH situational update at this link.

20200325_IDPH_COVID19_Webinar_FINAL

 

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4 Comments
  • Dave
    Posted at 09:58h, 27 March

    We seldom get the whole truth from govt

  • jannie
    Posted at 10:02h, 27 March

    I take much of the figures with a grain of salt. I heard on my local radio station IL had 23,000 (can’t remember exact given) cases – maybe they read the copy wrong.
    Things were put in perspective for me I read the CDC about 2017-2018 was very bad flu season and the numbers.

  • A. Lincoln
    Posted at 12:23h, 27 March

    The truth was that all men having power ought to be distrusted to a certain degree.

    -James Madison, Notes of the Federal Convention, July 11, 1787

  • James J. Pancrazio
    Posted at 19:33h, 27 March

    The table is poorly constructed. There is no race labeled as “under investigation” this is either a problem in the creation of the categories in the database. One thing we are seeing in McLean county is that the testing is not being applied to everyone thatbrequests it. WGLT reported that one of my former students hasvall the symptoms and is currently in self quarantine. She was, however, not tested for the virus. Apparently the test kits, which are also in short supply in Italy, are being used for higher risk cases. The confirmed numbers here have reached 9.

$