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April 23, 2024

Illinois – The numbers don’t add up

By Kirk Allen & John Kraft

On May 3, 2020

Illinois (ECWd) -,

For weeks the people have been demanding answers to questions related to the COVID-19 death numbers.  Even more, questions were raised when it became evident that you could be eaten by an alligator and labeled as a COVID-19 death if you happened to test positive.

At the 14:33 Mark in the video link below is a question that discloses the State’s position on what is a COVID-19 death.

IDPH reported Illinois had 2,457 deaths as of May 1, 2020.

According to the CDC report, COVID-19 deaths and others reported to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) by the jurisdiction of occurrence,  Illinois has 1,296 COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020, not 2,457 which IDPH is reporting for May 1, 2020.  Why are Illinois citizens being told a number that is approximately 48% higher than what the CDC is reporting they are told?  The CDC does point out that “Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.” We will monitor this information to see if a 48% jump is reported by CDC.

Jurisdiction of occurrence?

Reading the CDC report and reading the plain language of the report, it would appear the COVID-19 deaths reported to them by Illinois (jurisdiction of occurrence), does not match what that same jurisdiction of occurrence is telling the people of Illinois.

As if the COVID-19 death reporting is not concerning enough, CDC reporting of deaths in Illinois from pneumonia (non-COVID-19) is reported to be 2,724 which is just over 47% more than those by COVID-19. Who knew pneumonia was killing more people in Illinois this year than COVID-19?

Of interest with what appears to be a numbers game being played on the people is some claims made by the Governor’s attorney in the Darren Bailey case in Clay County.

Mr. Verticchio, the Governor’s attorney, in his efforts to paint a picture of major concern, told the Judge the following:

“Jasper County, 42 cases, less than 10,000 residents in the county. As a result, it suffers one of the highest per capita infection rates in Illinois.(see transcript)

After crunching numbers, this appears to be either the old adage “The Sky Is Falling” routine or an indicator of how weak the Governor’s case really is.

Jasper County has a population of 9,611 with 42 COVID-19 cases when this exchange took place.  While the per capita argument is fairly accurate, the rest of the story must be told to keep things in perspective.   The numbers of infected in Jasper equate to .043 of the population.  The number of deaths at the time was 5, all from a nursing home from what was said in court.  That equates to .0052 of the population.

Here is where this information is so important.

Both nationally and at the state level, there has been an emphasis on flattening the curve.  They have been looking at what is called the doubling rate as an indicator.  How many days does it take for the cases to double, or deaths to double?  That is the measure to see how well we are doing managing the spread.  According to the Governor and the so-called experts on this new China virus, only when that curve flattens will he talk about opening up parts of the state.

Jasper County doubling numbers? 

Virtually nonexistent. On the day of Court, April 27th, 2020 when the attorney threw out the panic numbers, there was a reported 42 cases.  As of May 3, 2020, they have increased that number by 3 for a total of 45 cases.  The death numbers are still at 5.  In Clay County, where the court hearing took place, nothing has changed in weeks, 2 cases.

If the concern was doubling as the Governor has insisted, why on earth would his attorney point to a per capita comparison for Jasper, a county next door to Clay, the resident county of the Plaintiff.  It appears he went out of his way to use a number that serves no other purpose than to try to influence the court and make them believe there is a disaster.

All indications point to the dissemination of misinformation by the Governor, IDPH, and the Governor’s attorney.

Both the Judge in Clay County and the people of this state have a right to know accurate numbers as it relates to their health concerns.

One can only wonder why Illinois is reporting one thing to the NCHS and something different to the people of this once great state.

The other major number that they have yet to disclose, the number of people who have recovered.  Disclosure of those numbers would surely expose more manipulation of the real numbers of cases in Illinois.  While many counties have reported cases, several have no active cases and all have recovered but the state does not seem willing to share that information.

Stay tuned for more exposure as to why the Public Trust is rapidly evaporating in Illinois.

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  • Ginny B
    Posted at 18:00h, 03 May

    Does Mr Bailey have a court date yet or is it being put off till the end of the month?

  • Judy
    Posted at 18:23h, 03 May

    New c19 math, all you old timers who are home schooling someone you may need to call a state accountant to properly understand

  • Dave
    Posted at 18:32h, 03 May

    There is almost nothing that adds up about this country’s reaction to the Wuhan Virus

  • NiteCat
    Posted at 18:33h, 03 May

    The “science” and the numbers have never added up from the beginning. Their “science” is discounting all immunology studies from the past, “this is nothing like any virus’ from the past”. If so, then how did this get to be the 19th itertation of the ever present corona virus??? And the fact that they resisted serology testing til now instead of from the beginning is another tell. Is this virus dangerous??? Probably, and always for those with pre-existing conditions and imunocompromised. So is the “ordinary” annual flu bug. Is it more contagious/infectious?? I would say no if it takes up to 14 days after exposure to maybe display symptoms or not. The “ordinary” flu has a faster incubation time, can be 7 days or less. I could go on…

  • Rickstir
    Posted at 20:08h, 03 May

    Another example of “FIGURES DON’T LIE BUT LIARS FIGURE”

  • LeRoy F
    Posted at 21:22h, 03 May

    Best as I can tell, you guys have a decimal error. Number of infected 9611/42=0.43%. Number I’d deaths 9611/5=0.052%. You guys did great work on this article. Keep it up! There’s something really wrong with what’s going on.

  • Mike
    Posted at 07:35h, 04 May

    COVID-19 wasn’t so named because it’s the “19th iteration.” COVID-19 derives it’s name because it began in 2019. Please correct me if my information is wrong.

  • Deb provinzano
    Posted at 07:45h, 04 May

    I have many symptoms. (68 year old with mild lung issues). I called the ER where I live & was told they don’t usually test unless from a nursing home or Assisted Living but instead treats the symptoms. Going through the hotline number at IDPH, I do qualify for the test. I will drive 40 miles today to get it. Do we really know a correct number? How many would give up after calling ER? I don’t blame the ER staff; they were very helpful. I will say IDPH was wonderful, thorough & actually ordered an antibiotic.

  • Gene Cahan
    Posted at 07:48h, 04 May

    Please follow up with answers to the questions this article points out! Please do not let our Governor get away without answering to the discrepancies!!

  • Christine
    Posted at 07:56h, 04 May

    Interesting I actually went to the CDC website and it is the person who wrote this that doesn’t add up….

    I hope people are looking into the information it seems any idiot a allowed to spout before actually dangerous misinforming others.

  • Jbw
    Posted at 07:57h, 04 May

    An Illinois politiican may have lied? I’m shocked, shocked I tell you! To quote Elwood blues, it’s not a lie it’s just bullshit

  • Christine
    Posted at 07:59h, 04 May

    The 19 in Covid-19 is for the year 2019 not the 19th iteration my god stop listening to Fox News and better educate yourself

  • Tom
    Posted at 08:10h, 04 May

    Thanks all you Democrat’s for higher taxes and higher counts on c19 more Democrats bull shit all over the country dam shame your drunk leader of the house and crazy Joe are not sharing ventilator but I’ll governor would order 10 for each of them

  • Kirk Allen
    Posted at 09:01h, 04 May

    The link you provided is based on data from this link, according to the CDC.

    The link in the article is to the actual CDC collected and published data. If your goal is to simply name call and attack, you’re wasting your time. If your goal is to ensure the truth is published, we encourage dialog and input. In this case, your input is based on information that is not from the CDC according to the notes in the very link you sent.

    If we are to believe the information in the link you provided, which conflicts with the actual CDC web site linked in the article, would you agree the numbers don’t add up, which is what we state in the title?

    Please explain how this information in any way is dangerous, right or wrong?

  • Kirk Allen
    Posted at 09:04h, 04 May

    That is what Mike stated. What does any news media have to do with anything in this article? COVID-19 was identified in 2019. Who said or implied it was a 19th iteration? This is your second comment that leans towards brow beating rather than constructive dialog. If you goal is to simply name call and attack people please take your efforts elsewhere.

  • Johnbarnes
    Posted at 09:37h, 04 May

    I find it odd that you don’t hear of any deaths from other causes except covid19 . Sounds like there’s more money to be made from covid19 deaths. I think we are all being duped in some fashion about this whole pandemic.

  • Roger
    Posted at 09:44h, 04 May

    the 19 for covid19 comes from the first world reported case being in 2019, nothing to do with the virus strain. although this is one of the worst coronavirus strains seen to date its just a huge reminder of how important hygiene practice is. I’m a type 1 diabetic they claim im a high risk person. thus far knock on wood I’ve only suffered the same seasonal allergies i do every year from mid jan into the middle of spring. if you allow yourself to live in fear you are already allowing your body to become weaker. being part of the so called “essential work group” my daily routines have not changed much. we as the people need to stand up and keep the government in check and exercise our constitutional rights as “we the people” rest assured if we go blindly following the government we will loose our way of life as we know it along with our valued freedoms that the constitution gives us.

  • Roger
    Posted at 09:47h, 04 May

    the total global numbers for covid19 as of today are still blow the numbers of a regular flu season. cross reference that and you’ll end up with more questions than answers.

  • Tim
    Posted at 09:53h, 04 May

    Funny how the article plays with numbers as well. It is right about the number of cases as a low percentage, but if you take the number of people who got infected and the number that died that is a 10% death rate. Everyone talks about the flu killing more people. That may be the case, but how many people who get the flu die is a lot different when you have 1 million people get the flu and then take 61k who get Covid 19. Guess what, having more deaths from a sample of million is a lot different than having that same or similar number in a smaller sample. I bet if I told you 5 people won the lottery in a sample size of 10 is the same as 50 people winning in a group of 2 million you would say it is better to play against the 2 million. Covid 19 does not have cure. Is that hard to understand. If you get it you just hope you are strong enough to make it through. Can’t say that about the flu.

  • Kirk Allen
    Posted at 10:30h, 04 May

    The COVID-19 death rate is not 10%. If you believe it is, please cite the source of that information.

  • PK
    Posted at 10:34h, 04 May

    Thank you. The Illinois COVID-19 response included closing ALL state parks. This may have been the most restrictive response of any of the state governments…kindly an ‘outlier’ among state government responses. Aptly, an inexcusable failure of the Illinois administration to rise to a demand for precision in order to assure access to the essential resources that are public lands.

  • Rodney
    Posted at 10:49h, 04 May

    The ratio of cases of documented COVID-19 to deaths is important to exam. With 42 cases in Jasper County and 5 deaths that is significant. Yes, these cases and deaths are tied to a nursing home, but throughout the country there are a significant number of younger healthier people who have died. Any situation where people are crowded to together elder care centers, slaughterhouses, jails, prisons, factories, schools,… cases spike. At this time, we have had 68000 deaths tied to COVID-19 since the first of March, with ~1,200,000 documented cases. More testing is important to understand and know the extent of COVID-19! We do not have “herd” immunity nor a vaccine at this time. We will all get COVID-19 if we are exposed to it, in some way shape or form. To get natural immunity or until a vaccine, it is possible that 330,000,000 citizen / ~1,200,000 documented COVID-19 cases times 68,000 deaths could occur (>18,000,000). This is real! It is not a typical flu virus. The second round of “Spanish Flu” in 1918 was worse than the first round. There is a reasonable chance of a second round this fall. Data and statistical evaluation can being confusing and can be intentionally misrepresented depending on the intent of the presenter. Listen to the medical experts.

  • Randy
    Posted at 10:55h, 04 May

    239,000 deaths world wide in 4 months. Those numbers do add up. It adds up to an extremely dangerous virus that can kill you. If your family is ever horrifically effected by this virus you might be more driven to post an article of a different tone.

    Not entirely related to this article but an opinion of mine:
    I’m in favor of true, honest and unbiased opinions. The problem is you are both politically biased and that tends to steer your articles direction and provide the necessary “spin” to make your political point. In a country where there is no longer non biased, real, true and actual reporting of news, a true need for an organization to expose corruption within local governments is admirable. You have an opportunity to be admirable, to make a difference and most importantly to be something that no longer exists. A non biased political reporting group. As of today, your not.

    • Anonymous
      Posted at 14:21h, 06 May

      239k worldwide is literally a tear drop in the ocean compared to the world’s population.

  • Kirk Allen
    Posted at 10:56h, 04 May

    In Illinois those medical experts have told us the way they are recording these case deaths and their methodology is not good science!

  • Kirk Allen
    Posted at 11:06h, 04 May

    We are not disputing or questioning the virus and its dangers. This article DOES NOT diminish the science of the virus. It points out the inconsistent information the government is telling the public.

    Political Bias? LOL Here we go again. Another opinion that is not based in anything other than your opinion. The virus does not know what political party it is infecting. Stop the baseless partisan accusations.

    When we filed an OIG complaint against Republican Governor Rauner, we were told by Republicans that we we only did so because we supported the Democrats. Now when we expose the Democrat we get accused of being political. We have heard this crap a thousand times and the fact is, there is no truth to those unsubstantiated claims.

  • Cindy
    Posted at 11:22h, 04 May

    Kirk and followers: Have none of you read Orwell’s “1984”? You are following the script perfectly. You won’t let me post any links here so I can’t give you the cliff notes. You dogs are wonderful in what you do but you are quite a bit short-sighted on what is REALLY going on.

  • Cindy
    Posted at 11:30h, 04 May

    See word magick rituals for the real reason they are hoaxing you with that number. Think 9/11.

  • Kirk Allen
    Posted at 12:30h, 04 May

    Wont let you post links? That is totally false. See comments below that contain links.

    • James Keller
      Posted at 13:42h, 05 May

      You and John keep up the good work, Crawford County loves you. Stand strong, be safe.

  • PK
    Posted at 13:53h, 04 May

    I’ve read article and information at the link you’ve provided. I now understand that a COVID-19 reported death(s) are lagged by a death(s) certificate.

  • Rodney Nelson
    Posted at 14:28h, 04 May

    As of right this moment per IDPH database there have been 47 cases and five deaths at the Newton Home is Jasper County and and a total of 45 cases and 5 deaths in all of Jasper County. Close enough for Government work?

  • Steve Willson
    Posted at 17:18h, 04 May

    Since the statute gives the governor 30 days of emergency powers, and he issued his proclamation of March 9th, how is it that he still has the legal authority to impose a state of emergency?

  • dklapp
    Posted at 17:32h, 04 May

    LOL. No, this isn’t the 19th iteration of the coronavirus.

  • dklapp
    Posted at 17:38h, 04 May

    I can’t wait for your update to this post with, the CDC showing over 2,600 COVID deaths in IL. That’s coming, right?

  • Dan
    Posted at 01:41h, 05 May

    2457 is approximately 100% greater than 1296, not 48% as stated. 1296 is 48% _of_ 2457.

  • Fletch
    Posted at 09:23h, 05 May

    CDC numbers. This entire situation is a shell game. Just wish SOMEBODY

  • Fletch
    Posted at 09:28h, 05 May

    CDC numbers. Just wish SOMEBODY would speak the truth. Definitely not politicians. ANY of them. Or the big media.
    Sorry if this is duplicate post. I prematurely hit submit earlier.

  • Michael
    Posted at 23:14h, 05 May

    I’m disturbed by how Governor Pritzker has misrepresented some statistics to justify keeping the covid-19 lockdown in effect in the St. Louis Metro East. Per the Belleville News Democrat, on May 4th he claimed that only 25 ICU beds were available in the Metro East hospital region, which he used to justify the continued lockdown.

    This is misleading because it ignores the fact that the Metro East is also served by the hospitals on the Missouri side of metro St. Louis. When the entire bi-state St. Louis metropolitan area is viewed as a whole, there were about 1,000 available ICU beds per the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force as reported in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

    There was also the incident on April 27 where Governor Pritzker claimed that Monroe County had one of the highest per capita covid-19 death rates in Illinois, but failed to mention that was because one nursing home had nine deaths out of a total county population of 34,637.

  • Jeff
    Posted at 11:00h, 09 May

    You people are hilarious, desperately searching for evidence that shows this pandemic isn’t one. Once this is all over, you will be able to look back and see the number of dead people piled up at a higher rate than ever. The final statistics will show substantial increases in death rates. New York Times published numbers last week that are starting to tell the story.
    Even if the OP’s assertion of “hur dur, getting eaten by an alligator is a COVID death, hur dur” IS true (it’s not, I know doctors who’ve weighed in with what’s really happening), that won’t explain the total number of people dying spiking the way it has. Go talk to a funeral home director in New Orleans, Detroit, New York, etc.

    • Anonymous
      Posted at 12:02h, 09 May

      You are hilarious. There was no desperate search as it relates to the pandemic nor any implication it is not killing people or that it is not serious. We know it is serious. We also know, the numbers dont add up. The reporting is flawed and that is not in dispute, nation wide.

    • PK
      Posted at 12:28h, 09 May

      IDPH addressed the matter in the video segment linked to the article, dude. Gharials did emerge with the state’s COVID-19 response. In numbers many, back to front; remember to dry behind your ears.